YOUNGSTOWN– President Trump’s tariffs could escalate household expenses between $1,200 to $2,000 annually and jeopardize thousands of manufacturing jobs in the Mahoning Valley, Youngstown State University economist Mousa Kassis warned.

Kassis, an international trade adviser at YSU since 1996, said tariffs act as a “tax on foreign goods” that often inflate consumer prices. He pointed to recent discussions about expanding tariffs under Trump, whose proposals have fluctuated in scope.

“The challenge is how rapidly things change,” Kassis said during an interview, referencing Trump’s evolving stances. “Policies can pivot overnight, leaving businesses scrambling.”

Kassis noted that the unpredictability complicates planning for industries like steel, plastics and automotive manufacturing, which support roughly 16,000 jobs across Trumbull, Mahoning, and Columbiana counties.

“When policies change multiple times, companies freeze investments or expansions,” he said.

The economist highlighted that households in the region could face higher prices for vehicles, construction materials and aluminum products like beverage cans.

“This additional tax might hurt the economy by reducing consumer spending power,” he said, referencing rising credit card debt and delinquencies reported in 2024.

Kassis drew parallels to Trump’s tariff in his first presidency, which he said strained businesses but were partly offset by post-COVID recovery efforts.

“Back then, there was more economic slack. Now, with inflation and debt levels, the margin for error is thinner,” he added. Recent stock market volatility he said shows investor unease over tariff risks.

Trump’s team has weighed sanctions on Venezuelan oil imports, a move analysts say could provoke retaliatory measures.

Kassis warned similar actions targeting U.S. exports could harm Valley industries.

“If trade partners retaliate, our machinery and agriculture sectors here become collateral damage,” he said.

To mitigate impacts, Kassis advised businesses to explore strategies like adjusting product classifications or shifting supply chains.

“If a product is imported as separate pieces rather than a whole, it might fall under a different tariff code,” he said, referencing Harmonized System (HS) code modifications.

His office offers free guidance on such tactics, though he acknowledged local companies remain hesitant publicly to discuss tariff concerns.

When asked about long-term economic forecasts, Kassis cited analysts’ 2025 U.S. GDP growth estimates of 2.3%, adding that prolonged tariffs could lower projections. “Uncertainty stifles growth. Businesses need stability to hire or expand,” he said.