Well, it happened. Liberation Day arrived Wednesday (April 2) and with it the sweeping tariffs that US president Donald Trump had promised. What does it mean for the seafood industry?
A lot still hangs in the air, but Catch the Current hosts Amanda Buckle and Lorin Castiglione are phoning all their friends to break down the hardest-hit countries and what it means for key species.
Grab a shot glass and your liquor of choice because it's time to talk Trump tariffs!
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Don't have time to listen? You're missing out on the fun! Find a transcript of episode 11 of Catch the Current below:
Amanda Buckle (AB): You’re listening to Catch the Current, the coolest seafood podcast out there, from the team at Undercurrent News, your trusted source for industry news, data and prices. I’m Amanda Buckle.
Lorin Castiglione (LC): And I’m Lorin Castiglione.
AB: Grab your shot glass and liquor of choice because we’re talking about Trump’s tariffs.
LC: I know I previously said that we’re not that type of podcast but in this case you may be right. After quite a bit of back and forth about tariffs since he first took office in January, Trump stood by his word on so-called "Liberation Day."
AB: On Wednesday, with his poster board in hand, Trump announced all the retaliatory tariffs being put in place to “Make America Wealthy Again."
US president Donald Trump announcing retaliatory tariffs on April 2, 2025. Photo Credit: The White House/ Facebook
LC: We’re calling in multiple friends and using Undercurrent’s trade portal to break down the biggest losers -- and even winners -- from Trump’s Tariff bonanza.
AB: Caller number one. Undercurrent News' editor-in-chief, Tom Seaman. Tom, what a time to be alive in the global seafood industry.
As someone living in London, what was it like watching these tariff announcements unfold yesterday? Because I can only imagine it was like watching an Oprah rerun, like, "you get a tariff, you get a tariff, you get a tariff!"
Tom Seaman (TS): It was pretty fascinating to watch. It kicked off about 9 pm UK time and it didn't take long to realize that it was going to be a long night as we got our live coverage moving and the numbers started to come out.
From a UK point of view, I guess not totally just about seafood. I was pretty glad that Keir Starmer's did enough to carry favor with Trump to get a 10% tariff, which is half of what the EU level was. And then I was shocked that really Canada and Mexico didn't get hit, or have not been hit thus far, despite a lot of rhetoric about them in Trump's speech. So yeah, it was a fascinating evening to see it all unfold live, watching history in the making.
AB: Oh, 100%. Lorin and I have talked about this, and that's what's so great about working at Undercurrent is that we have such a global network of reporters. It's so interesting seeing and hearing from somebody across the world on what's unfolding in my country and then seeing what's the viewpoint from another country. So I love it.
Talking about seafood, Undercurrent News has a blog running to provide updates on the tariff situation. But for those that prefer looking at graphics, Tom also put together, in charts, how the top US seafood suppliers are being impacted by the bombshell tariffs. Tom, I don't want you to give too much away; We want to direct people toward the site.
So how about you share the three tariffs on seafood suppliers that surprised you the most?
TS: Such a hard question to narrow it down to three, because there's so many kind of things in there where the implications are going to ripple out over the next few weeks, months on it. But I think the 10% on Ecuador is massive with shrimp, because the other Asian supply countries got hit really hard with Vietnam getting 46%, Thailand 36%, Indonesia 32% and India 26%. So that gives Ecuador a big opening to further increase its market share and close the gap on India, which is the number one out of the US market.
The 46% from Vietnam is also notable. Willem van der Pijl's great Shrimp Insights blog reported that this actually takes Vietnamese shrimp to 75% in the US if you add on the anti-dumping and CVD duties on top of that. I was speaking to a European shrimp importer this morning, and he was commenting that he's very popular with the Indian and Vietnamese suppliers suddenly, because they'll obviously be looking to increase their sales to Europe, with diminished sales to the US likely.
Vietnamese shrimp. Credit: Seabina Group
The 46% on Vietnam doesn't only impact shrimp, as Vietnam is also major supplier of pangasius and canned and frozen tuna to the US. So this really large tariff is going to impact multiple trade-flows. Similarly, the additional 34% on China has wide-reaching implications across various sectors, so the 34% takes tilapia to 79%, which is absolutely crazy, as the 25% put on in Trump's first term remained in place throughout Biden's time in office and is still in place.
And then China is obviously a processing hub for US headed-and-gutted whitefish and salmon, which is then sent back to the US as fillets. So this will then be hit with an extra 34% tariff when it comes back to the US on top of the current 20%, which could impact demand on fish from the Alaskan industry being sent to China. I think also the tariff on China could accelerate the move to other processing hubs like Vietnam, Indonesia and India, although the tariffs on the first two here are obviously very high too.
Obviously nobody can really compete with China on processing efficiency, even though the tariff on them is very high. What I heard from Chinese sources -- and I'm going to be speaking to more of them Friday -- was that the race is on basically to ship as much as they can before April 9 and then worry about the next steps. Maybe they'll continue to look to set up operations in other countries in the region to process for the US and then use the Chinese plans for Europe, because that trend has been happening anyway over the past few years.
And in response, China has already tariffed US seafood after the 20% tariffs Trump's put on earlier this year and has said it will hit back further. So that's going to be something to watch.
Maybe by the time this podcast goes live, we'll actually have more news on that. So, yeah, watch this space.
AB: Yeah, everything is definitely moving so fast. And that's why I can't stress enough to direct you right to the Undercurrent site, because we have reporters across the globe that are keeping everything up to date. Thanks so much, Tom.
There were a few countries that didn't make it onto Trump's tariff poster board. One, that Undercurrent's own Barb Dean-Simmons has been watching carefully -- Canada.
Barb Dean-Simmons (BDS): If anyone in the US heard a whoosh of air, that was likely the sound of seafood executives in Canada collectively exhaling. So right now they're relieved because seafood to the US remain duty-free, as per the terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, which came into force in 2020 during Trump's first term of office. So Canadian lobster, crab, whitefish, oysters, mussels and all the rest can still cross the border into the US duty-free.
However, Canada is still not entirely happy with the Liberation Day tariffs because we will still face 25% tariffs for aluminum and steel. And Canadian automakers, of course, are swept up in the US' 25% tariff on the imports of foreign-made vehicles. So Canada didn't get off scot-free in the trade war.
And our prime minister, Mark Carney, just announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US-made vehicles. So it's still #elbowsup north of the 49th.
AB: Barb, what has the response been like? I mean, you said it's a whoosh of air from Canadian companies and associations, but is there worry that this could still turn?
BDS: Yeah, a little bit of mixed reaction from the seafood industry folks that I spoke with today. But mainly they're relieved for sure, but they're not euphoric. So they're really concerned about the big-picture future of global economics. Because there's that overarching concern about how tariffs will impact the US consumer and how much their dollar will fetch them if imported products are costing 10-50% more.
Canadian snow crab clusters on display at Seafood Expo North America in Boston, March, 2025. Photo by Barb Dean-Simmons
One company official told me today that if Americans are feeling the pinch of inflation after these tariffs or worried about their budgets and future retirement plans, then they might not be reaching for that package of 5-8 oz. to snow crab legs or ordering the live lobster dinner at their favorite restaurant.
And by the way, we're just a week or so away from the opening of the world's largest snow crab fishery in Newfoundland. That's going to dump 62,000 metric tons of crab onto the market.
The spring lobster fisheries and the Maritimes are set to start in April. The uncertainty over what was coming on Trump's Liberation Day certainly added to the stress of prepping for those seasons. And even in Newfoundland, they're still debating dock prices.
The other thing in all of this is that the trade trust between Canada and the US has also been damaged. With Trump's changing narrative on tariffs over the past two months, seafood exporters say there's no guarantee that the president won't change his mind and add Canadian seafood to the tariff list at some point. So while they've exhaled for now, they say there's still plenty of reason to be nervous.
LC: Thanks, Barb. And that's a good segue for us into the lobster market, for which we're calling on our pal senior price reporter Gary Morrison. Gary, what's the good word on how these tariffs are impacting the lobster market?
Gary Morrison (GM): Yeah, so similar to the crab industry, it's basically getting mirrored for the cold-water lobster folks as well.
There are no tariffs on lobster coming from Canada given the exemption of the qualifying goods under the USMCA. So every other country besides Canada and Mexico has had a 10% baseline tariff put onto it. In addition, reciprocal tariffs will be added based on trade balances.
So we saw that great chart that President Trump held up yesterday. We can see some of those numbers and what it adds to. But I bet that was a big sigh of relief for the lobster industry on both sides of the border, since Canada supplied nearly all US cold-water lobster imports in 2024 at 77.6 million pounds, valued at $1 billion.
But tariffs or no tariffs, prices on lobster tails have been moving lower as sellers holding inventory have a lower risk appetite ahead of the upcoming season. They don't want to be holding supply moving into that new season that can influence the pricing down the line.
Moving forward, I really think it's consumer confidence that will play a larger role in pricing. We've been at elevated prices for quite some time, given where we came into 2025 with inventory. Moving forward, what's the consumer going to be willing to pay for a lobster roll or a lobster tail?
A lobster roll featured on Red Lobster's Lobsterfest menu. Photo Credit: Red Lobster
AB: And they're already not happy about paying the price now.
GM: Exactly. So if consumer confidence is shaken or the economy starts to falter a little bit, it's really up to them if they're willing to pay the prices. And again, at elevated pricing and what it's going to be moving forward. So for lobster, when you talk about tariffs, we could kind of just put cold-water to the side now based on the announcement yesterday.
What we're seeing is different rates are against our largest trade partners in warm-water tails. So the top three sourcing countries of the Bahamas, Honduras and Brazil did not make that least-favored nation list. So they got assessed at only that 10% tariff rate that was put across the board. Meanwhile, Nicaragua got an 18% rate and South Africa a much higher 30%.
LC: So Gary had mentioned seeing a sigh of relief on Canadian lobsters and we're seeing that similar sentiment on salmon from Canada. Right now, the salmon supply is pretty ample. We've got increases coming in from Norway. The Lenten season sales are a little bit sluggish. So we've seen some softening on prices from Chile and Norway, with those prices converging.
But as we inch closer to Good Friday and Easter, things are anticipated to pick up and those discounts are being offered a little bit less. But as far as those tariffs, we've got 10% on Chile, 15% on Norway, 15% on Scotland. So it's, you know, definitely a relative win for for Canada, but also for Chile, as well in comparison to to Norway and Scotland.
But that added 10% could be pushing prices over the $10 mark at retail. And that seems to be a threshold for many shoppers. Once prices edge over that mark, sales start to temper. That could be the situation here. Of course, broader questions arise since Norway is at 15%. Will they now focus on China and Europe and pull back from the US going forward? So there's a lot of questions up in the air. Things are unfolding every day. So we'll be seeing what we can keep track of there. But yeah, lots of volatility for sure.
AB: Now, what about scallops? Because we've been relying on Japan a lot. And I don't know if you have their tariff number up.
LC: So Japanese scallops, we are seeing that at 24%. You know, it comes at a very critical time. Right now, the supply of domestic scallops is very constrained and we're relying more so on imported scallops. So getting 24% from Japan. From Peru, we're seeing a 10% add. Canada's in the clear, but Canadian scallops are just as constrained as the domestic supply in the US. And then, of course, you know, what are we up to? 79% on product from China.
Photo of Hokkaido scallops. Credit: keiphoto
AB: And it keeps going up!
LC: So it's a very tough time for the scallop market right now, because, you know, we're just starting on a new season. We're still under interim rules because the new framework hasn't been approved yet. So there's so much to juggle in the scallop market right now. Prices are still firm. The new season, you expect some softening, and we could see that on some smaller sizes. But right now, because of all the added pressure from the tariffs, things are very, very firm and pressure is mounting there.
AB: I can probably assume that the same would go for tilapia.
LC: Yeah. Tilapia is interesting because this market has been under notable pressure with mounting tariffs. For Chinese product, we have the 25% from Section 301 tariffs. We have the first round of 10%, the second round of 10%. And now this added 34%, which is up to that 79% cumulative tariff. Before yesterday, wholesale prices were largely steady.
And that's because inventories here in the US are pretty moderate and buyers were pretty reluctant to absorb any added costs there. But now looking at the 79%, that's going to take effect on April 9.
We're hearing from suppliers that the first 10%, there was some willingness from suppliers to share the cost. The second 10%? Not so much. With this new playing field of 34%, some plants are willing to offer some lower costs, but that amount is still in discussion. It does seem like Guangdong is better-positioned supply-wise to be more flexible, where Hainan is reporting much more tighter availability. So right now, it's pretty much if product can ship before April 9.
AB: Now, of course, we can't forget about shrimp. Save the best for last. We'll hear from Undercurrent's editorial director Cliff White shortly, who could provide some more insight on how domestic shrimpers are feeling on the news. Spoiler alert, they are thrilled. But Gary, a majority of our shrimp is imported. How are these tariffs impacting our major supplying countries?
GM: Yeah, so let's first start with US wholesale pricing. There really hasn't been much change over the last couple of weeks. Prices have been relatively stable.
It goes back to what Lorin said. Imports in the first two months of the year have been pretty robust. So there's been enough supply here to balance the level of demand and keep prices steady, with most people awaiting what would happen with the tariff situation.
And then what we saw was there are some clear winners and losers when it comes to importing in source countries for shrimp. And I think this is going to have a major impact on trade flows.
Some of the numbers are pretty disparate, so that gives some clear competitive advantages to some producing regions over others. But you also have to remember that these new tariffs, they come on the back of anti-dumping rates and countervailing duties that have hit the imported shrimp market in 2024. When you add all these numbers up there's some significant rates being applied to some of these major trade partners.
Just a little background, the US imported 1.7bn pounds of shrimp last year, worth $6.3bn. So pretty significant.
India, our number-one trade partner, is being hit with a 26% reciprocal rate for a total rate of 34.26% when you add the 2.49% for anti-dumping and 5.77% for countervailing duties. Other Asian suppliers that we'll talk about in a minute are even higher. Ecuador, the second-largest source of shrimp to the US, is being hit with a moderate 10% rate in comparison, and they only have a 3.78% CVD for a total combined rate of 13.78%. So a significant win for Ecuador, if you're looking at who is the clear winner in this besides Canada and Mexico.
Indonesia is third in US imports, has a 32% tariff and a 35.9% total with everything added in. Vietnam, that's really where we're starting to see things shoot up, has one of the highest reciprocal rates at 46%. That's where it's going to hurt the most. But then if you combine 28.6% AD and CVD, Vietnam now has the highest rate, they're going to be charged a whopping 74.6%. So, it is nearly a one-for-one trade value.
And it's not so much that it's that rate, right? It's really gross dollars when you look at it. Vietnam only sent -- only, comparatively speaking -- $721m of shrimp to the US last year, and that's half of Ecuador in value. But it would pay $332m in tariff rate, which is $202m more than Ecuador.
Photo Credit: Dish on Fish
So sent half the value, it's going to pay almost three times as much in tariff. And then you have to add in another $206m for the AD, CVD rate for a total number of almost $540m. In gross dollars, does it really make sense for Vietnam to enter the US market? So this is really reminiscent of Brazil in the early 2000s.
They were a major shrimp supplier to the US before some anti-dumping duties were assessed to them in 2005. And after that, it wasn't the final pin in the cushion. But it started the decline of of the shrimp industry there for quite some time that they've only started to rebuild recently.
So, you know, it can certainly be impactful to Vietnam as well. And then finally, Thailand, the fifth-largest source of shrimp in the US will incur 36% with no other assessment, but they have no AD or CVD.
That outlines some of the differentiators in some of the top sourcing countries for the US.
AB: Thanks, Gary. And if you're not following Gary on LinkedIn, I suggest you do because you've been sharing some insights there and some of the charts available on UCN's trade portal and pricing portal. So, you know, thanks for being a wealth of knowledge on this.
GM: There's a lot to unpack, but, I think with all the information that Undercurrent has and all the access to trade data and news, I think it all wraps it up pretty nicely.
LC: And we've got one final friend on the line, as promised, the one and only Cliff White. Gary shared some insight on the imported shrimp market.
So, Cliff, this week you covered the Southern Shrimp Alliance's response to the tariffs. How is the sentiment from the domestic side of things?
Cliff White (CW): Yeah, they're pretty stoked.
AB: There's somebody that's happy besides the autoworkers in the US.
CW: The Southern Shrimp Alliance, which represents the domestic shrimp industry, based in the Gulf of Mexico... Gulf of America ... however you want to go with that, has been pushing for years a lot of complaints against other shrimp-producing countries, saying that they get a lot of subsidies, that they have lax environmental laws, that there's allegations of forced labor and child labor in some foreign shrimp producing countries. They've been pushing both inside Washington and in state governments for some kind of government action to help them combat what they call cheaper, inferior-quality foreign shrimp imports. These tariffs accomplish that.
They are really excited to see tariffs on all the biggest shrimp-producing countries that they say will finally level the playing field for them in the domestic market.
AB: It's a lot of mixed feelings out there, I think it's safe to say. But when s*** hits the fan? Besides turning to Undercurrent News for all your important information, a lot of the folks in the industry also turned to the National Fisheries Institute (NFI) for guidance.
And NFI actually held an emergency meeting after Trump's tariff announcements. Cliff, what can you share?
US president Donald Trump announcing retaliatory tariffs on April 2, 2025. Photo Credit: The White House/ Facebook
CW: It was a very well-attended meeting. From the sources I know who were in the meeting, they told me there was a lot of anxiety, a lot of confusion. There were calls for calm to try and figure this out.
But the short deadlines until these tariffs go into effect don't give these US importers much time to figure this out. There were questions about when the tariffs are coming into effect, whether that affects product that's been contracted but not put on the water yet. So many different questions came through from what I understand from people I heard from who attended the meeting.
The biggest response was kind of, "This is what we think we know, but we're not sure." It's all so new. NFI didn't seem to have all the answers and I don't think anyone really has all the answers yet. Everyone's still trying to figure this out. But the deadline for figuring this out is so tight that I think there's a lot of panic and a lot of hard work being done to try and make a business plan based off of the announcement that came Wednesday from the president. There's a little bit of nuance here because no one really knows how this is going to play out long-term.
Domestic producers are ecstatic about these tariffs; importers less excited. But I think the big question that we're going to try and figure out here at Undercurrent is how might this impact US consumption of seafood? That's kind of the million-dollar question because what ultimately will impact the entire seafood industry, whether you're a Gulf shrimper or Chinese tilapia producer, is American consumption. You need Americans to eat more seafood if you want to succeed in business.
So that's what we're here to figure out and we'll keep poking into it.
LC: That's it for today's episode. Thanks for tuning in as the seafood industry continues to navigate trade shifts, market volatility and global policy changes.
There's never been a more important time to stay informed. At Undercurrent News, we're here to help you stay ahead of the curve with trusted US wholesale pricing, global trade data and breaking news coverage you can count on. So go check out our very active blog centered on all things tariffs.
If you'd like a free trial, we have a form you can fill out in the show notes or email me at LC@undercurrentnews.com and I'll get you set up.
AB: Thanks for listening and we'll see you back here next week.
LC: Bye.
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