Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 28, 2025
— India dangles tariff cuts to avert U.S. trade retaliation. In a strategic move to ease trade tensions, India has offered tariff cuts on key U.S. agricultural imports — including almonds, cranberries, walnuts, and bourbon whiskey — as part of ongoing negotiations aimed at preventing reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. set to take effect next week. The offer came during high-level meetings in New Delhi with Brendan Lynch, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for South and Central Asia. India is reportedly open to reducing duties on over half of the $23 billion in U.S. imports, distinguishing its conciliatory approach from that of China, Canada, and the EU. Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed the talks are “progressing well,” underscoring mutual benefits. Key tariff updates: U.S. exports of agricultural and related goods to India reached nearly $2 billion in 2024, with fruits, vegetables, and alcoholic beverages leading the way. Meanwhile, India’s exports to the U.S. totaled approximately $5.5 billion. Of note: India is considering a proposal to scrap an import tax on US liquefied natural gas, to boost purchases and help cut the trade surplus with Washington, Reuters reports, citing four people in the government and a person in the industry familiar with the matter. — House Finance panel chair says USMCA deal should be renegotiated. “It is best to tackle this Canadian and Mexican issue inside a new and revised USMCA,” House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) tells Bloomberg TV. Limiting certain inputs from China into Canada, Mexico or the United States can be accomplished in the agreement, he says. — Cross-border tension eases? Ontario expects U.S. to soften auto tariff blow after Lutnick call. Ontario officials are cautiously optimistic that the U.S. will dial back the impact of newly announced auto tariffs on Canada, following a direct call from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Premier Doug Ford, the Globe and Mail reports (link). The late-night conversation came just hours after President Donald Trump shocked Canadian leaders by unveiling a 25% tariff on vehicles based on non-U.S. content. A senior Ontario government source said Lutnick’s outreach signals Washington’s understanding of how deeply Canada and the U.S. are intertwined in automotive supply chains. The source added that while the tariffs likely won’t be scrapped, Canada could gain “a very significant relative advantage against the rest of the world.” The anticipated changes — expected sometime after April 2 — may hinge on how the U.S. defines American content in vehicle parts. “Ontario continues to engage with the U.S. administration,” the source emphasized, noting it highlights “the value of Mr. Ford’s relationship with Mr. Lutnick.” Premier Ford was blunt in his reaction to the blindsiding announcement. “We thought we’d be informed — the word ‘no surprises’ came up in the meeting. And sure enough, well, here’s a surprise,” he told reporters Wednesday. Ford stopped short of confirming whether he supports a retaliatory tariff on U.S. vehicles, noting it would raise prices for Canadians. Still, he left the door open: “We either roll over as a country and he runs us over 15 times and gets what he wants, or we feel a little bit of pain, and we fight like we’ve never fought before. I’d prefer the latter.” The premier said he has urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to hold a First Ministers’ call to coordinate a national response. He also plans to meet with auto executives and key stakeholders like Volkswagen, which is building a major EV battery plant in Ontario with hefty government backing. Ford also hinted the tariff timing might be politically motivated, suggesting it could be “a possible channel changer” from a scandal in Washington involving leaked military plans. But a far different Canadian perspective came from PM Mark Carney. See next item. — Carney draws line on Trump tariffs, calls for economic reset. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a firm response to President Donald Trump’s latest round of auto tariffs, pledging Canadian retaliation while warning that the country must urgently reduce its economic dependence on the United States. “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa. “We will need to dramatically reduce our reliance on the United States… We will need to pivot our trade relationships elsewhere.” The PM signaled that the Canadian government would introduce countermeasures, but said the bigger challenge lies in reshaping the country’s economy for long-term resilience and “strategic economic autonomy.” Carney emphasized that Canada’s auto industry would be protected, alongside other critical sectors. “I’m confident we can ensure the survival of Canada’s auto sector,” he said, pointing to a broader national effort involving the federal and provincial governments as well as private enterprise. Sectors identified as strategic priorities included: “There will be no turning back,” Carney said, underlining that even if future negotiations restore some trust with the U.S., Canada must act now to build resilience and reorient trade toward new partners. — Impacts of proposed port fees on U.S. ag sector. To support their position, the National Grain & Feed Assn. (NGFA) helped commission a comprehensive study (link) analyzing the economic impacts of the proposed port fees on U.S. agriculture. The study’s findings reveal major consequences for key commodities: Of note: An especially striking statistic from the study shows that in 2024, the U.S. grain and oilseed sector exported over $66 billion in value while importing only $1 billion, creating a net trade surplus of $65 billion. The proposed port fees put this surplus at significant risk. Link to NGFA’s one-page fact sheet on this issue. — Bloomberg Economics: Trump’s tariff plan could spike U.S. rates to 35%, slash GDP by 4%. Bloomberg Economics analyzed Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs set for April 2, factoring in tariff differentials, VATs, and non-tariff barriers. If fully implemented, U.S. average tariff rates could jump from under 2.5% to 35%. The resulting economic shock could cut U.S. GDP by 4% and raise prices by 2.5% over two to three years, according to economists Maeva Cousin, Eleonora Mavroeidi, and Rana Sajedi. — USDA targets California in funding review over civil rights, policy compliance. USDA is scrutinizing its research and education-related funding to California, citing potential concerns over compliance with federal law and the Trump administration’s policy priorities. In a letter sent Thursday to California Governor Gavin Newsom, USDA official Brandon Rollins stated the agency is conducting a review “for compliance with the Constitution, federal laws including Titles VI and IX, and the priorities of the Trump Administration.” The funding under review includes millions in federal support for agricultural research, cooperative extension programs, and education partnerships that benefit California’s public universities and rural communities. While no specific violations were cited, the move reflects a broader effort by the administration to tie federal dollars more closely to its own ideological and legal standards — a strategy that could spark renewed tensions between the federal government and progressive-led states like California. — Early look at next week: President Donald Trump’s big reciprocal tariff announcement is on Wednesday, a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Thursday, and Friday brings the U.S. monthly jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Other events: Monday has USDA releasing key reports on Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks. Tuesday brings two special U.S. House elections in Florida for the seats vacated by Republicans Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. Thursday: U.S. tariffs of 25% on car imports are set to take effect. Another race to watch on Tuesday is the most expensive judicial election in American history — to fill a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The winning party will gain a 4-3 majority in a swing state where a court ruling made the difference in the 2020 presidential campaign. |
| PERSONNEL & DOGE |
— HHS overhaul under RFK Jr.: 10,000 jobs to be cut in sweeping restructure; 20,000 counting early retirement and buyouts. “We will eliminate an entire alphabet soup of departments, while preserving their core functions.” — HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
In one of the most significant overhauls of a federal agency in recent memory, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will eliminate 10,000 jobs as part of a sweeping restructuring effort under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The plan — unveiled Thursday — aims to consolidate 28 HHS divisions into 15, streamline operations, and create a new central agency called the Administration for a Healthy America (AHA). The AHA will incorporate several existing departments, including the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health, the Health Resources and Services Administration, and HHS’ substance use and occupational health offices. With additional early retirement and buyout incentives across the federal government, total reductions will bring HHS’s workforce from 82,000 to 62,000.
“This reorganization serves multiple goals without impacting critical services,” the department said in a statement, projecting $1.8 billion in savings.
The reorganization reflects broader Trump administration efforts to downsize the federal government and is aligned with similar moves in other agencies, such as the U.S. DOGE Service and tech magnate Elon Musk’s parallel workforce cuts.
Morale within several public health agencies has reportedly plummeted. According to internal sources, offices like the FDA and NIH have been particularly affected by layoffs and a newly enforced in-office work policy.
Key breakdowns from the Wall Street Journal suggest the cuts will affect:
- FDA: 3,500 employees (19%)
- CDC: 2,400 employees (18%)
- NIH: 1,200 employees (6%)
- CMS: 300 employees (4%)
In a major structural shift, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) — which had been elevated to a standalone division under former Secretary Xavier Becerra — will now be folded into the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This move also returns control of the Strategic National Stockpile to the CDC.
Bottom line: While the Kennedy-led HHS insists core functions will be preserved, many within the agency worry about long-term capacity to respond to public health crises, chronic disease, and ongoing research initiatives.
— Musk defends DOGE mission in high-profile Fox News interview. Elon Musk appeared on Fox News with members of his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) team to outline their mission and respond to growing criticism. Key takeaways from the interview include:
· Revolution in efficiency: Musk called DOGE a “revolution,” aiming to cut federal spending by 15% without affecting essential services.
· Downplaying layoffs: He minimized reports of job cuts and criticized government inefficiency, suggesting critics may have hidden agendas.
· Team revealed: For the first time, DOGE team members like Joe Gebbia and Steve Davis were introduced, sharing updates on reforms in retirement systems and expense management.
· Fiscal goals: DOGE said it has saved $130 billion so far, with a target of slashing $1 trillion from federal spending.
· Social Security hints: Musk suggested potential benefit increases for “legitimate” recipients, though the term remains undefined.
· Legal and political pushback: DOGE faces legal battles and union resistance, with Musk accusing some judges of corruption when rulings go against his team.
Upshot: The interview served as both a defense of DOGE’s controversial agenda and a strategic unveiling of its leadership and accomplishments.
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings. Asian and European stock markets extended losses while gold hit another record high, as President Donald Trump stoked worries of an all-out trade war (link). The share price of Japan’s Toyota fell by 3% in morning trading; that of South Korea’s Hyundai dipped by 4.2%. In Asia, Japan -1.8%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.7%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
Equities yesterday: General Motors declined 7.4%, Ford fell 3.9%, and Chrysler-owner Stellantis dropped 4.2%. Among global automakers, BMW lost 2.6% and Mazda slipped 6.0%. Tariffs could drive demand to used cars. That should benefit used-car retailers and repair shops. These stocks rallied Thursday, with CarMax gaining 2.5% and Advance Auto Parts rising 6.7%.
With one trading day left in the week, the Dow is up 0.75% over the period, the S&P 500 is up 0.45% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.11%. The S&P 500 has fallen 3.2% so far this year, on track to snap a five-quarter winning streak. It would be the index’s worst start to a year since 2022, when it fell 5% in the first quarter and ended the year 19% lower.
— Perspective: It took 41 years for Berkshire Hathaway stock to gain $100,000. It just gained that much in 37 days.
— PCE inflation holds steady, but core prices accelerate. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in February 2025, matching the pace of the previous two months and meeting expectations. Goods prices increased by a softer 0.2% (down from 0.5% in January), while services rose 0.4% (up from 0.2%). The core PCE index — excluding food and energy — climbed 0.4%, the largest monthly gain since January 2024 and above the 0.3% forecast. Food prices remained flat, and energy prices edged up 0.1% after a sharp 1.3% rise in January. On a yearly basis, headline PCE inflation held steady at 2.5%, while core inflation ticked up to 2.8%, above both the revised 2.7% prior reading and consensus expectations.
— IMF flags U.S. slowdown, but no recession forecasted; tariffs weigh on confidence as Trump trade policy ramps up. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is signaling that the U.S. economy is losing momentum in 2025 — but crucially, it does not expect a recession. “Large policy shifts have been announced, and the incoming data is signaling a slowdown in economic activity from the very strong pace in 2024,” said IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack during a press briefing on Thursday. “All of this said, recession is not part of our baseline.”
The IMF’s view comes as President Donald Trump continues to advance a combative trade policy, slapping tariffs on major partners including Canada, Mexico, and China, with more expected to land on April 2. Sectors like automobiles and industrial metals have become key targets of the administration’s push to boost U.S. manufacturing.
Despite these headwinds, the U.S. economy posted stronger-than-expected growth in Q4 2024 — 2.4%, according to revised data released Thursday. But that strength may not last, with forecasters expecting slower growth in 2025 amid rising economic uncertainty.
Consumer and business sentiment appears to be slipping. Surveys show Americans’ financial outlooks have hit record lows, with many bracing for higher prices driven by tariffs.
Kozack noted the IMF is “in the process of assessing the impact of all of these announcements” and will factor them into the upcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO), scheduled for April 22. The fund is also analyzing the broader global effects, warning that Canada and Mexico could face “significant adverse impact” if tariffs persist.
In January, the IMF projected U.S. GDP would grow 2.7% in 2025, slightly down from 2.8% in 2024. Those estimates could shift in the next WEO release.
— Driving through economic fog. Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, offered a practitioner’s perspective on today’s economic uncertainty. At the H. Parker Willis Lecture at Washington and Lee University, Tom Barkin opened with a vivid analogy: “With all this change, a dense fog has fallen. It’s not an everyday ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog. It’s a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog.” That’s the state of today’s economy as Barkin sees it — shrouded in policy-induced uncertainty. Businesses aren’t retreating, he noted, but they’re not taking risks either. “They for the most part aren’t pulling back, but they’re not pushing forward,” he said, adding that both businesses and consumers are “on pause,” paralyzed until the path ahead becomes clearer.
Drawing from his decades at McKinsey & Co, Barkin emphasized that “the beliefs and outlook of consumers and businesses help drive the economy.” When sentiment turns, hiring, investment, and spending decisions shift. And right now, sentiment is drifting downward. In late 2024, optimism was high. GDP had grown 2.5%, unemployment hovered at a low 4.1%, and inflation had fallen from its 2022 peak. “Put simply, sentiment was good,” Barkin recalled.
But as 2025 unfolds, federal policy uncertainty — from tariffs and immigration to tax cuts and deregulation — is creating a drag. “The March edition of the Fed’s Beige Book literally broke the record for mentions of ‘uncertainty,’” he noted.
Barkin walked through the key policy areas driving sentiment lower:
- Tariffs: New potential tariffs could quadruple the average rate seen in 2018. “One could imagine more of an impact on prices,” Barkin warned, though he acknowledged the full effects are still uncertain.
- Immigration: Net migration could fall significantly, with labor force growth expected to be about half of what it was in the 2010s. This could squeeze economic growth and lift wages.
- Fiscal policy: Barkin described a balancing act between tax cuts and spending reductions, with divergent impacts on inflation and growth. “How they play out is still to be negotiated,” he said.
- Energy: With traditional sources being promoted and global demand softening, energy prices could be disinflationary — “but we know that situation can change abruptly,” he cautioned.
While there is clarity on where policies are pointing, Barkin argued that the “knowledge is being swamped by what [consumers and businesses] don’t know.”
So what does this mean for monetary policy? Barkin likened it to driving in zero visibility: “Carefully and slowly, and if there’s a safe place to pull over, you do so to avoid getting in trouble.” At the Fed’s latest meeting, interest rates were held steady. “With the labor market still solid and inflation still above target, our moderately restrictive stance is a good place to be,” Barkin said. But he stressed the Fed is “well positioned to adjust” if conditions change. Until then, like everyone else, the Fed is waiting. “We face the same fog as businesses and consumers,” he concluded.
— CBO warns U.S. population to shrink by 2033 without immigration. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has moved up its estimate for when the U.S. population will begin to decline — now projecting it could happen as early as 2033 if immigration levels drop. This marks a sharp revision from last year’s forecast of 2040.
Deaths are expected to outnumber births within eight years. From that point forward, net immigration will be the sole driver of population growth. The warning arrives amid a wave of restrictive immigration policies under President Donald Trump, with February border crossings plunging 94% year-over-year.
Notably, the CBO’s analysis excludes Trump-era policy effects, as its forecast was completed before he took office.
“Net immigration would increase the size of the overall population in coming years and boost the share of people in age groups that have higher rates of labor force participation.” — CBO Report
Sluggish economic growth ahead. The CBO projects a 30-year average GDP growth rate of 1.6%, down from 2.5% over the past three decades. Contributing factors:
- Slower labor-force growth as the population ages
- Modest gains in productivity
- Lower investment levels due to federal borrowing
The labor force is expected to reach 185 million by 2055, up from 171 million in 2025. However, annual growth will slow to just 0.1% — a stark drop from the 0.8% seen since the mid-'90s.
Mounting debt, murky crisis risks. Despite the buzz around AI and innovation, productivity gains are not expected to significantly offset long-term drag. The CBO also sounded the alarm on America’s growing debt load:
- Debt held by the public will rise from 100% of GDP today to 156% by 2055
- Federal borrowing is projected to crowd out private investment
- Educational attainment growth is slowing, weighing on future productivity
Still, the agency notes there’s no clear-cut “tipping point” for when rising debt could trigger a crisis, even as risks mount.
— Who Is Rural America? McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility highlights rural diversity, potential, and overlooked opportunities (link).
Rural America is often painted with a broad brush — portrayed as isolated, homogenous, and in decline. But as a new article from the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility reveals, the reality is far more complex, vibrant, and essential to the nation’s future. In fact, rural areas contribute nearly $2.7 trillion to the U.S. GDP, accounting for approximately 10% of the total economy while being home to about one in seven Americans. “This narrative [of decline] bears little resemblance to reality: Areas outside of urban centers are actually growing and benefiting from both more diverse populations and economies,” the authors write.
Defining “Rural”: A Policy Problem
One of the central challenges is that “rural” has no single definition—five federal agencies use five different ones. Depending on the agency, the rural population in America could range from 45 to 50 million people. As McKinsey puts it, “This lack of clarity has had a profound and lasting impact,” often making it harder for communities to access federal resources.
To cut through the confusion, McKinsey’s researchers relied on the USDA’s Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, which classify 61% of U.S. counties as rural — home to 46.3 million people in 2023. “A standardized rural definition would likely enable more-effective federal resource allocation,” the report notes, pointing out that billions from major infrastructure acts are at risk of being unevenly distributed due to definitional inconsistencies.
Myths vs. Reality
The analysis challenges several misconceptions:
- Rural America is diverse. While still predominantly White, rural areas are becoming more multiracial, with increases in Hispanic and other racial groups over the last decade.
- Rural America is working. Contrary to stereotypes, agriculture accounts for just 7% of rural employment. The largest job sectors include government (18%), manufacturing (13%), and healthcare (11%).
“The rural economy is more diverse than commonly perceived,” the authors explain, highlighting that economic growth has been steady and household incomes have increased by 43% since 2010.
Gaps in Infrastructure and Education
While broadband adoption and access to services still lag — especially in small rural communities — investments are being made. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has earmarked $65 billion for broadband expansion and $110 billion for roads and bridges, aiming to close longstanding infrastructure gaps.
On education, the divide remains notable: only 20% of rural adults hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34% in urban areas. “This gap could reflect demographic shifts... as well as the impact of labor mobility,” the report suggests.
A New Framework for Rural Progress
Perhaps most powerfully, McKinsey aims to reframe how policymakers and investors think about rural development. Their forthcoming report introduces new economic archetypes for rural communities — ranging from manufacturing hubs to resource-rich regions — to help tailor strategies that fit local realities.
Bottom line: “We hope these findings will not only shed light on the unique characteristics of each archetype but also provide a framework for targeted economic development strategies,” McKinsey says.
| AG MARKETS |
— Ag markets today:
- Grains weaker overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat faced pressure during most of overnight trade and are near session lows this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn and soybean futures were trading 3 to 4 cents lower, SRW wheat was 6 to 7 cents lower, HRW wheat was 11 to 12 cents lower and HRS wheat was 4 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was around 150 points higher, and front-month crude oil futures are tethered near unchanged.
- Choice beef prices ease after the recent surge. Choice boxed beef prices dropped $2.58 to $335.72 on Thursday, while Select firmed $2.91 to $319.44. Recent price strength has improved beef processing margins, though they remain deep in the red, making packers reluctant to raise cash cattle prices after actively buying supplies last week.
- Pork cutout drops. Pork cutout dropped 81 cents to $94.84 on Thursday, as declines in bellies, butts and picnics more than offset gains in the other cuts. After topping the $100.00 mark Tuesday morning, cutout has dropped roughly $5.00.
— Ag trade: South Korea purchased 130,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 55,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat.
— Cotton, small amount of pork cancelled by China. USDA weekly Export Sales activity for China continued to show some sales but a few cancelations. Activity for 2024-25 the week ended March 20 included net sales of 202,346 metric tons of soybeans, but net reductions of 26,951 running bales of upland cotton (gross sales of 400 running bales but cancelations of 20,900 running bales and 6,400 running bales changed to a different destination). Activity for 2025 included net sales of 54 metric tons of beef and net reductions of 17 metric tons of pork.
— U.S. hog inventory slips slightly, USDA reports. The U.S. hog and pig population showed a slight decline this quarter, with 74.5 million head reported on farms as of March 1, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). This marks a minor dip from March 2024 and a 1% decrease from Dec. 1, 2024.
Key highlights from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report:
- Market vs. breeding stock: Of the total, 68.5 million were market hogs, and 5.98 million were breeding hogs.
- Piglets weaned: Between December 2024 and February 2025, 33.7 million piglets were weaned—a slight year-over-year decline.
- Litter size: The average number of pigs per litter stood at 11.65 during the same period.
- Farrowing intentions: Producers plan for 2.91 million sows to farrow between March–May 2025 and 2.96 million between June–August 2025.
Top states by inventory:
- Iowa remains the leader with 24.3 million head.
- Minnesota follows with 9.2 million.
- North Carolina holds third with 8.1 million.
To compile the report, NASS surveyed 4,455 swine operations nationwide through multiple channels, including online submissions and in-person interviews. The data offers a critical snapshot of the U.S. pork sector heading into spring.
— Agroconsult raises Brazil soybean production forecast after crop tour. Brazil is expected to produce 172.1 MMT of soybeans this year, Agroconsult forecast after a nationwide crop tour of 13 states that began in January. The new estimate is 800,000 MT higher than its previous forecast. Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top crop state, is expected to produce more than 50 MMT of soybeans for the first time, Agroconsult said. With roughly 80% of the crop yet to be harvested in Rio Grande do Sul and the far southern state battling persistent drought, Agroconsult warned production potential could decline.
— Argentine farmer soybean sales the slowest in 10 years amid murky FX outlook. Argentine farmers had sold 8.4 MMT of soybeans from this year’s production as of March 19, equivalent to between 17.3% and 18.1% of the expected harvest. That marked the slowest pace since the 2014-15 season when 15.7% of the soy harvest was sold at the same time of the year. A faster devaluation of the peso has been expected ahead of a $20 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund. Farmers’ crops are priced in dollars, but they receive the peso equivalent, meaning a weaker peso would give them more local currency, an incentive to hold onto their crops.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Oil slips on tariff fears, but supply concerns drive weekly gains. Oil prices dipped on Friday due to renewed concerns over global demand linked to tariffs. However, both Brent and U.S. crude are on track for a third straight weekly gain, driven by tightening supply as the U.S. ramps up pressure on Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports. Brent crude fell 31 cents, 0.4%, to $73.72 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 33 cents, 0.5%, to $69.59.
— Oil prices edged higher Thursday amid tariffs and supply drop. Brent crude rose 24 cents to $74.03 per barrel and WTI gained 27 cents to $69.92, extending Wednesday’s 1% climb to their highest levels since February. The market remains tense following President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars starting next week, with auto parts duties to follow in May. Analysts warn these tariffs, along with fresh restrictions on Venezuelan crude buyers, could weigh on demand. India’s Reliance Industries plans to cease Venezuelan oil imports in compliance with U.S. sanctions. However, oil prices were supported by a larger-than-expected 3.3-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories and a dip in jobless claims, indicating economic strength. Still, DBS Bank analysts note that lingering trade policy uncertainty could cap further gains.
— Dallas Fed survey reveals oil industry split on Trump’s energy playbook. In the heart of the Permian Basin, oil executives are wrestling with a familiar figure and a fraught policy mix. The Dallas Fed’s latest quarterly energy survey reveals a divided reaction to former President Trump’s 2024 energy and trade signals — with enthusiasm for deregulation colliding head-on with fears of trade turbulence and pricing contradictions. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal,” said one anonymous executive.
Key takeaways from the survey:
- Uncertainty is climbing. Executives cited “uncertainty” around tariffs and trade policy as a top concern. “It continues to negatively impact our business, both for mid- to long-term planning and near-term costs,” one noted.
- Cost pressures are rising. Tariffs are expected to hike steel prices, squeezing margins even as U.S. output remains at record highs.
- Mismatch of goals: There’s skepticism that Trump’s push for energy dominance can coexist with his desire for $50/barrel oil. “There cannot be ‘U.S. energy dominance’ and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory,” warned one exec.
- Market outlook: Most respondents expect oil prices to land between $65–$75 by the end of 2025, reflecting guarded optimism.
- Activity ticking up: Q1 data shows a modest rise in drilling activity — but also a sharp increase in the Fed’s “uncertainty index.”
The politics behind the barrel. While trade friction is a major sticking point, many respondents lauded Trump’s moves to cut regulation, approve LNG exports, and expand access to federal lands. Taylor Rogers, a Trump campaign spokesperson, said last week’s industry meeting at the White House marked the end of Biden’s “radical climate agenda… For the first time in four years, representatives of the oil and gas industry were welcomed back to the White House,” Rogers said. Notably, tariffs weren’t on the agenda.
What’s next? Trump’s energy ambitions may hinge on long-term plays — like expanded leasing in Alaska and the newly renamed “Gulf of America.” But short-term gains could be undercut if trade disputes chill global demand or delay investment.
| TRADE POLICY |
— Barron’s: Trump’s trade war escalates: Farmers caught in the crossfire. Rural America helped re-elect Donald Trump — but his second-term trade agenda is testing that loyalty, according to a Barron’s article (link). As the next phase of Trump’s trade war looms, U.S. farmers are bracing for economic fallout, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect April 2. Once again, agriculture finds itself on the front lines of global trade conflict.
At the heart of this shift is Iowa farmer John Airy, who cultivates over 1,000 acres of soybeans and corn. After a tough year marked by high input costs and falling commodity prices, Airy expects tariffs to add further strain. “Nobody is expecting to get rich this year. That’s for sure,” he told Barron’s.
Farmers as strategic targets. According to USDA, farm exports are projected to hit $170.5 billion this fiscal year — making the industry an ideal target for retaliatory tariffs. China, Canada, and Mexico have already imposed levies on $30 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods since 2017, roughly 17% of 2024’s total exports. Trump’s approach is clear. On Truth Social, he told farmers to “prepare to sell more within the U.S.,” adding with trademark bravado: “Have fun!”
Yet many farmers may struggle to find domestic demand to offset international losses. Some exports, like pork variety meats, have virtually no U.S. market. As Iowa Farm Bureau economist Christopher Pudenz put it: “I don’t think you’re going to be eating any more pigs feet than you currently do.”
Operating costs are rising just as many farmers are still recovering from droughts, labor shortages, and pandemic-related inflation. To make matters worse, Musk-led cuts to federal departments under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gutted critical USDA staff, including researchers monitoring crop disease threats.
The administration’s broader budget cuts are reverberating through agriculture, according to the Barron’s item:
- Termination of the Soybean Innovation Lab, which monitored fungal threats like red leaf blotch
- Suspension of $2 billion in conservation payments under the Inflation Reduction Act
- Closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which bought $2 billion in farm goods for aid
- Cuts to USDA food programs for schools and food banks
“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” one USDA official told Barron’s. Even programs aimed at building foreign demand for U.S. products are being dismantled.
Despite the criticism, Trump officials remain confident. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told Fox Business that farmers are ready for the “interim period” before reaching what Trump calls “the greatest age of prosperity.” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly echoed that tone: “Trump will ensure farmers have the support they need to feed the world… while leveling the playing field.”
Financial relief is reportedly under consideration, possibly mirroring the $28 billion direct aid program used during the 2018–19 trade war. Still, even that failed to prevent record-high farm bankruptcies in 2019, per the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Long-term damage could include permanent loss of global market share. China has already shifted to buying soybeans from Brazil, and John Beghin, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, issued this warning to Barron’s: “Once you have a tariff on U.S. product... even when the tariff goes away, you don’t get it back.”
— What Trump’s coming tariffs mean for Mexico’s auto industry: Mounting pressure, potential profit shifts, and a challenge to the USMCA. The U.S. auto tariff bombshell is here — and Mexico’s car industry is bracing for impact. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles entering the U.S., a move that could upend North American trade dynamics and significantly affect Mexico, whose auto exports to the U.S. exceeded $181 billion last year.
But there’s a twist: vehicles assembled in Mexico with U.S.-made parts won’t bear the full burden. Under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), vehicles with U.S. content can deduct that portion from the tariff. Given that the average Mexican-exported vehicle contains about 40% U.S. content, the effective tariff could land at 15%. “If parts are made in America and a car isn’t, those parts are not going to be taxed,” Trump said. “And we’ll have very strong policing as far as that’s concerned.”
Why it matters for Mexico: More than 80% of Mexico’s vehicle exports go to the U.S., making it deeply reliant on American buyers. Plants operated by Ford, GM, and other global automakers churn out millions of units annually in Mexico — 2.9 million vehicles in 2024 alone. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the government is preparing a response and intends to seek “preferential treatment… We have to protect jobs and the economic activity of Mexico,” Ebrard said Thursday.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration plans to deliver a full strategy by April 3, when the tariff is set to take effect.
Threat to the USMCA? Trade experts and Mexican officials say this move could violate the USMCA itself. “Trump is changing from a rule of regional integration to a rule of national origin,” said Ildefonso Guajardo, Mexico’s former economy minister. “It’s a flagrant violation.” “This is the end of the USMCA and three decades of integration,” warned Eric Ramírez of Urban Science.
The new tariff applies to vehicles and parts, including engines, transmissions, and electronics, with more categories potentially added later. While the U.S. government claims it’s a national security measure under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, critics see it as protectionism wrapped in legalese.
Who Pays? Trump claims the U.S. will rake in $100 billion annually, but importers — usually American companies — will foot the bill. According to the New York Times, tariffs could raise prices by $6,000 per vehicle on average. The Wall Street Journal reported that during a recent call with top U.S. auto executives, President Trump warned them not to raise car prices in response to tariffs. According to people familiar with the call, Trump said the White House would view such price hikes unfavorably — leaving some executives concerned they could face retaliation. Trump instead urged the automakers to appreciate his rollback of what he described as President Biden’s electric-vehicle mandate, which had included subsidies and emissions rules aimed at boosting EV production. He made an extended case that tariffs would ultimately benefit their industry by promoting domestic manufacturing, claiming his approach was more favorable than that of previous administrations.
Trump sees the move as part of a long-term plan to bring car production back home. “We’re going to take back the money that’s been taken from us… and encourage automakers to open new plants in the U.S.,” he said. “This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America.”
Meanwhile, uncertainty looms. Will U.S. automakers relocate? Will Mexico push back harder? And will this mark the unraveling of USMCA as we know it?
— Trade trouble ahead: U.S. shipbuilding fix could sink American rice exports. In a guest column for USA Rice Federation by Ben Conner, partner at DTB Agri-Trade, Conner says policy aimed at China’s maritime dominance risks collateral damage to U.S. farmers. As the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) explores aggressive new measures to counter China’s shipbuilding overcapacity, American farmers — particularly rice exporters — may soon find themselves paying the price, he notes.
At the center of this policy clash are not only tariffs but new, lesser-known mechanisms like port service fees and restrictions on services. The proposal, still under discussion, aims to penalize Chinese-built and Chinese-owned vessels at U.S. ports, with fees ranging from $1 million to $1.5 million per ship. “If these estimates are even directionally correct, it is concerning that USTR would propose policies so harmful to U.S. farmers,” writes Conner.
A recent study by Trade Partnerships Worldwide suggests the consequences could be dire: U.S. rice exports could be slashed by 50%, a level of damage no foreign competitor has yet inflicted. This effort stems from a March 2024 petition by labor unions calling for a Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime sector. The investigation concluded that China is using unfair trade practices to dominate the shipbuilding industry, harming U.S. commercial interests.
In response, USTR floated the idea of imposing:
- $1 million or $1,000 per ton fees on Chinese-owned vessels entering U.S. ports
- $1.5 million fees on Chinese-built ships, regardless of ownership
- Mandatory quotas requiring that U.S.-flagged, U.S.-built ships make up at least 20% of fleets used to export American goods
These sweeping remedies have raised alarm in agriculture circles. “These proposed fees would directly impact [our transportation advantage], making U.S. rice less competitive compared to other origins,” warns Conner.
The U.S. International Trade Commission had recently praised the rice industry’s strength, citing efficient infrastructure. However, additional port fees and shipping restrictions would erode that edge, while foreign competitors could still access cheaper transport by avoiding U.S. ports altogether.
The service restrictions, too, could be “virtually impossible to meet,” putting further pressure on exporters already coping with narrow margins, the column says.
Bigger picture: Real problems, wrong tools. Conner acknowledges that subsidy-driven overcapacity is a serious concern—and not unique to shipping. In agriculture, U.S. producers have long struggled with similar practices by countries like China and India. “The problem of subsidy-driven overcapacity should have been addressed sooner, before a critical American industry was brought to its knees,” he writes.
He points out that while the U.S. won a WTO case against China’s rice subsidies in 2019, that win was blunted by broader trade tensions and a lack of follow-through. Meanwhile, India continues to violate WTO rules with minimal international response.
Takeaway: Conner calls for realistic solutions that recognize the global dependence on Chinese-built ships and instead prioritize systemic reforms through global institutions like the WTO. “USTR cannot turn back time and make vessels built in China disappear. They are now an integral part of global shipping, especially for agricultural commodities like rice.” As Washington weighs its next move, Conner urges policymakers to ensure farmers aren’t made the unintended victims of a trade policy meant to bolster shipbuilders.
| CONGRESS |
— GOP budget strategy takes shape as Memorial Day deadline looms. Punchbowl News notes that 59 days remain until House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) Memorial Day deadline to deliver a sweeping reconciliation package to President Donald Trump’s desk — and House and Senate Republicans are racing to agree on a compromise budget resolution that could unlock the 50-vote path in the Senate.
A split strategy to unite the party
Behind closed doors, GOP leaders are finalizing a two-tiered budget blueprint that includes dramatically different spending-cut instructions for the House and Senate, according to Punchbowl News:
- Senate: At least $3 billion in cuts.
- House: A much steeper $1.5 trillion floor.
The disparity is intentional. As Punchbowl News reports, Republican leaders are “trying to strike a balance between appeasing House conservatives and not alienating key Senate Republicans.” The Senate needs flexibility to comply with the complex rules of reconciliation, particularly the Byrd Rule. In contrast, House Republicans demand bold, symbolic spending reductions. “I’d have to see language. I’m very skeptical of that though,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) told Punchbowl News, expressing concern over the softer Senate approach.
The Senate’s current draft includes:
- Cuts of $1 billion each from the Agriculture, Energy and Natural Resources, and HELP committees.
- $150 billion in defense spending authority — more than the House’s $100 billion cap, a nod to Senate defense hawks.
- A “baseline” scoring tactic for tax cuts that could allow GOP leaders to extend the 2017 tax cuts without adding to the deficit — pending a ruling from the Senate parliamentarian.
The biggest question: Can this plan pass?
The Senate is expected to vote first — possibly next week — but leaders can only afford to lose three votes. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a hard no if the package includes a debt ceiling increase (currently pegged at $5 trillion). Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) want more aggressive cuts. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) demands inclusion of his nuclear radiation compensation bill, warning: “I’m not gonna vote for a debt ceiling increase unless leadership commits to helping Missourians poisoned by nuclear radiation… If the leader wants it, it will happen.”
Still, some Republicans are open to the compromise: “I’m comfortable with it,” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), though he expects “bigger spending cuts in the final reconciliation bill.”
The Trump factor
In the end, the GOP’s biggest asset remains Donald Trump. Speaker Johnson and Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) are counting on Trump’s backing to lock in votes from skeptical Republicans. “If a small number of GOP lawmakers stand in the way... they’ll feel the heat of holding up Trump’s entire legislative agenda,” Punchbowl News concludes.
— Senators rebuke Trump admin for withholding emergency funds. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, are pushing back against the Trump administration’s selective release of emergency funds approved by Congress in a recent continuing resolution (CR). In a letter (link), they argue the administration must honor all of Congress’s emergency spending designations, not just some — stressing that the president lacks a line-item veto. Collins’ involvement is notable since she recently became chair of the committee. “Just as the president does not have a line-item veto, he does not have the ability to pick and choose which emergency spending to designate,” wrote Collins and Murray.
Speaking at a press conference, Sen. Murray was blunt: “We are telling him, ‘This is the law, allocate the funding.’”
While the Fiscal Responsibility Act includes caps on federal spending, it also provides exemptions for emergency funds. Congress authorized $12.8 billion in such funding in the recent continuing resolution, but the Trump administration has declined to spend $3 billion, arguing the money was “improperly designated” and misaligned with the president’s priorities. That withheld portion includes foreign aid, humanitarian assistance, and key funding for the State Department’s anti-fentanyl and anti-human trafficking programs.
The administration’s decision has also come under legal scrutiny. On Wednesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit unanimously rejected the administration’s attempt to overturn a lower court ruling that found a January freeze on federal grants to be unlawful. While the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) rescinded the memo that initiated the freeze, the court ruled its ripple effects were still active and illegal.
The court also noted that the Trump administration offered no real legal justification for its categorical pauses in funding: The funding freezes were “categorical in nature,” the court said, adding the administration “did not make any effort” to lawfully defend its actions.
At the center of the dispute is the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which bars the executive branch from withholding congressionally approved funds for policy reasons—something Trump officials have long called unconstitutional.
OMB Director Russ Vought and President Trump may now take their fight to the Supreme Court in a bid to expand presidential authority over appropriations.
On the House side, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) sent a similar letter to OMB Director Russ Vought, but House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) did not join her, suggesting a partisan split on the House side.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Trump pulls Stefanik’s UN nomination to protect GOP’s House majority. The White House withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. “With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” President Trump said. “The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations. Therefore, Elise will stay in Congress, rejoin the House Leadership Team, and continue to fight for our amazing American People.”
The Trump administration is concerned about the narrow Republican margin in the House. CBS News first reported that Stefanik’s nomination was in jeopardy and that administration officials were set to discuss her fate on Thursday.
Of note: Stefanik, 40, had officially stepped down from her role as House Republican Conference Chair, the fourth-highest leadership position in the GOP, a position now held by Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.). While she relinquished her leadership role, Stefanik retains her committee assignments. Her nomination has already been cleared by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and she was expected to resign from the House next week if confirmed.
Trump hinted that he might make it up to Stefanik in the future with another position in his administration. But for now, he said, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was “thrilled” with the development.
There has been growing concern among Republicans in recent days about the special election to replace Mike Waltz, the embattled national security adviser who has drawn criticism for his involvement in a leaked Signal chat about a military strike on Yemen, in which he included a journalist. What was supposed to be a safe seat has become a competitive race.
There are two special elections next week in Florida, so the GOP majority should grow by two seats. One of the two races — Florida’s 6th District —is tighter than expected.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— GOP takes aim at junk food in SNAP program. Some Republican lawmakers have unveiled bills to restrict sugary snacks and sodas from taxpayer-funded food assistance. The Republican lawmakers are mounting a legislative push to overhaul what low-income Americans can buy with SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits — and junk food is on the chopping block.
At least three new GOP-led proposals aim to ban sugary sodas and other processed snacks from being purchased with SNAP funds, arguing that taxpayer dollars should not subsidize poor dietary choices.
Rep. Keith Self (R-Tex.) introduced the Funding Is Zero for Zero Nutrition Options (FIZZ-NO) Act of 2025, which singles out sugary sodas. The bill defines soda as “a carbonated beverage that contains more than 1 gram of added sugar, artificial sweetener, or flavoring per serving… Allowing taxpayer dollars to subsidize sugary sodas, which offer zero nutritional value and contribute to costly health conditions, is counterproductive,” said Self. “The FIZZ-NO Act is a common-sense solution to strengthen public health and reduce the financial burden on taxpayers.”
Meanwhile, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is taking it a step further. His Nutritious SNAP Act of 2025 would bar purchases of nearly all snack foods and beverages — from chips and cookies to ice cream and soda — unless they fall under a narrow list that includes water, milk, milk alternatives, or 100% juice. “It makes no sense that taxpayer dollars are being used to fund an epidemic of obesity and diet-related illness in low-income communities,” Paul said. “My bill ensures that this assistance program actually supports health and wellness, not chronic disease.”
A third effort, the Healthy SNAP Act of 2025, is being spearheaded by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.), along with several GOP cosponsors. This proposal targets an array of processed sweets — including “soft drinks, candy, ice cream, prepared desserts such as cakes, pies, cookies” — and mandates regular USDA reviews of the SNAP-approved food list every five years. “American tax dollars should not be used to pay for junk food and endanger the health of the most vulnerable Americans,” said Lee. “The fastest way to Make America Healthy Again is to encourage balanced diets and stop subsidizing unhealthy food choices.”
The proposed legislation has reignited a national conversation over nutrition, personal choice, and the role of government in public health. While some hail the measures as overdue reforms, others argue the changes could stigmatize and restrict low-income families’ food options.
Of note: New rules prohibiting junk food in schools in Mexico come into effect on Saturday.
— Booker pushes back on USDA contract freezes with new bill. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) introduced the Honor Farmer Contracts Act of 2025, a direct response to the USDA’s ongoing freeze on already-signed grant contracts and the closure of key field offices across the country. The legislation aims to compel the USDA to release frozen funds, uphold binding agreements, and halt surprise office shutdowns — moves that have left farmers and farm-support organizations in financial limbo.
“USDA’s refusal to pay what is owed to farmers and the organizations that support them is theft, plain and simple,” Booker told Civil Eats. He emphasized that USDA’s failure to follow through on legally binding contracts has led to “catastrophic consequences” for many, particularly those relying on nonprofit partnerships for training, conservation support, and market access.
Key features of the bill include:
- Mandatory implementation and payment of all signed agreements
- A prohibition on canceling contracts unless terms have been breached
- A requirement that Congress receive 60 days’ notice and justification before the USDA closes any local field offices
Booker’s move comes after reports that USDA — under pressure from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — has begun terminating leases for nearly 60 Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) offices. These are often the only local access points for farmers to USDA programs.
Compounding concerns is President Trump’s executive order ending remote work for federal employees, which raises questions about service continuity if office closures proceed.
“It’s a critical time of year for farmers and ranchers. They should be doing what they love — feeding our communities, not worrying about unpaid contracts,” Booker said, according to Civil Eats.
Civil Eats reports sweeping support from Dems, nonprofits — but the bill faces GOP roadblocks. The legislation has the backing of a dozen Senate Democrats, including Sens. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.), and will be introduced in the House by Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.). Outside the Capitol, more than 300 organizations have voiced support. Republican lawmakers have remained largely silent, signaling limited prospects for the bill’s passage with the GOP holding both chambers.
| HPAI/BIRD FLU |
— Bird flu outbreak hits Andhra Pradesh. India has reported eight outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu in farms and backyard poultry, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. All cases were detected in Andhra Pradesh’s eastern region, leading to the death or culling of 602,000 poultry.
— USDA expands access to avian influenza research funding webinar. On March 20, USDA announced a new funding opportunity aimed at supporting projects focused on avian influenza prevention, therapeutics, vaccines, and research. To help applicants understand the proposal process, USDA is hosting a webinar on Tuesday, April 1, at 12 p.m. ET. Due to high interest, the webinar link has been updated to allow more participants — registration is no longer required.
— Rollins backs Kennedy’s bird flu strategy — with a twist. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said she supports HHS Secretary Kennedy’s broader approach to tackling the bird flu outbreak — even as the two appear divided on a key issue: poultry vaccination. Responding to a question from Politico at the White House, Rollins said she agrees with Kennedy’s “all-encompassing” strategy, despite his controversial claim that vaccinating poultry could create “mutation factories.” That’s a sharp contrast to her own five-point plan, which includes a $100 million investment in vaccine research. “Secretary Kennedy’s approach, and I agree with it, is we’ve got to think about this in an all-encompassing approach, with the NIH, CDC, USDA, and HHS,” Rollins said. “So we are moving forward together.”
Still, some Democrats aren’t on board. Party members who’ve pushed hard for the administration to adopt poultry vaccination as a serious tool criticized Kennedy’s remarks, arguing they undermine efforts to contain the virus more proactively.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
— Lock and dam delays impact grain shipments; Melvin Price & Lock and Dam 27 reopenings pushed to April 4. The reopening of two key Mid-Mississippi River locks — critical to U.S. grain transport — has been postponed, according to American Commercial Barge Line.
- Melvin Price Lock and Dam (Alton, Ill.): Main chamber now set to reopen April 4, delayed due to final installation of a third lift gate, which was damaged in a 2018 barge strike.
- Lock and Dam 27 (St. Louis, Mo.): Main chamber reopening delayed to April 11 after discovery of a crack in a liftgate during lock wall repairs.
Originally, both locks were slated to reopen April 1 after closing on Jan. 1. The closures have caused barge transit delays of 2 to 4 days in the region.
In 2024 alone:
- 16.7 million tons of grain passed through Melvin Price
- 17.1 million tons moved through Lock and Dam 27, the final lock on the Mississippi River System
Bottom line: Shippers and exporters are closely watching for updates, as timing is crucial during the spring grain movement season.
— Public input open: Modernizing U.S. waterways under WRDA 2024. The Thomas R. Carper Water Resources Development Act of 2024 (WRDA), signed into law on Jan. 4, is a sweeping authorization aimed at conserving and developing the nation’s water resources. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is now inviting public comments on the law’s implementation, with a deadline set for April 30. Link for details.
WRDA 2024 includes a pivotal provision for updating the inland waterways system. It permanently changes the funding formula for lock and dam construction and major rehab projects — shifting the cost share from 35% Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) and 65% federal funds to a more favorable 25% IWTF and 75% general federal revenues.
Of note: While WRDA authorizes key projects, studies, and research to enhance rivers and harbors, it does not allocate funding. Appropriations will continue to be made through the Annual Energy and Water Development bill or other supplemental funding measures.
| CHINA |
— U.S. tariffs pose no threat to China’s grain supply. U.S. tariffs do not threaten China’s grain supply because markets had already anticipated the Trump administration’s measures, a senior economist at the state-run National Grain and Oil Information Center said. “However, these trade policies will significantly impact global trade patterns,” Wang Liaowei said. “If the trade situation remains unchanged by this year’s U.S. soybean harvest season, it’s possible that China’s dependence on Brazilian soybeans could reach 80%.”
— Record low Chinese soybean imports in Q1. China’s soybean imports during the first three months of this year are expected to total just 13.6 MMT, down 5.2 MMT from the same period last year and a record low for the quarter, an executive at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd said. However, imports are forecast to rebound to 35 MMT in the second quarter.
— China’s sow herd modestly builds. China’s sow herd totaled 40.7 million head at the end of February, up 0.6% from year-ago, according to data from the ag ministry. Hog slaughter rose 2.8% to 59.9 million head during the first two months of this year.
— Beijing lets U.S. beef export registrations lapse. China has not renewed export registrations for U.S. beef facilities that expired on March 16, though it updated registrations for pork and poultry plants, Reuters reported, citing traders and the U.S. Meat Export Federation. As a result, U.S. exporters and Chinese buyers are reluctant to strike deals for American beef produced after that date due to uncertainty about whether it will be cleared for delivery. U.S. beef export sales to China totaled just 54 MT during the week ended March 20.
— Xi Jinping courts CEOs amid U.S. trade tensions. In a high-profile effort to reassure the international business community, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with more than 40 foreign CEOs in Beijing, highlighting China’s commitment to global supply chain stability and open markets. The meeting comes as U.S./China trade tensions intensify, with Washington preparing to implement new tariffs in April. Highlights:
- Global supply chain stability: Xi urged multinational corporations to play a key role in stabilizing global supply chains, which have been strained by geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes.
- Market access & investment: Reaffirming China’s stance as an advocate for open markets, Xi pledged fairer treatment for foreign firms—particularly in government procurement and regulatory practices.
- Acknowledging foreign business impact: Xi emphasized that foreign companies contribute significantly to China’s economy, citing their large share of imports, exports, industrial output, tax revenue, and job creation.
The Biden administration is set to introduce a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods next month, citing national security concerns and China’s alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain.
China has seen a dip in foreign direct investment, excluding sectors like German automotive. This decline has pushed Beijing to renew efforts to attract international capital.
Bottom line: Xi has been ramping up outreach to global business leaders, including domestic tech figures and foreign CEOs, in a bid to reinforce faith in China’s economic model. This meeting is the latest signal that China is doubling down on its pro-business rhetoric in hopes of reversing foreign investment trends and projecting economic resilience amid increasing international headwinds.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible along the western Gulf Coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday... ...A couple rounds of winter weather including snow and possibly significant ice accumulations expected into the weekend from the northern Plains east through the Upper Midwest and the interior Northeast/New England... ...Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, expected overnight Saturday across portions of the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk for portions of the southern High Plains Saturday.
| KEY DATES IN MARCH |
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices
| LINKS |
Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Eggs/HPAI | NEC task force on HPAI, egg prices | Options for HPAI/Egg prices | Trump tariffs | Greer responses to lawmakers | Trump reciprocal tariffs |