Candace Kiersky is waiting and trying to figure out the path forward.
She's also trying not to worry.
Kiersky owns Skagit Valley Larder — a wine bar and cheese shop in downtown Mount Vernon, Washington.
The town, which is known for its tulips and annual tulip festival, is about 50 miles from the Canadian border.
Like other small businesses across the country, Kiersky is waiting to see what happens with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and what they might do to her costs, pricing, inventories and supply chains.
Trump has threatened 200% tariffs against wines, champagnes and liquors from France, Italy and other European Union countries.
That came after the EU imposed a 50% tariff on American bourbons and whiskeys. That was in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The EU announced Thursday it was pushing off the start of its tariffs on bourbon and whiskey and other U.S. goods until mid-April. They were slated to go into the place at the start of the month.
Baguettes are shown in front of wines from France displayed at Galinette, a French bistro, in San Francisco, Friday, March 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
It is just one battle front in Trump’s promised trade wars with more fights expected April 2 with the U.S. administration promising reciprocal tariffs for duties levied on American products.
Kiersky’s business — which also includes a wine club and classes — would feel the brunt of Trump’s threatened 200% tariffs on European wines and French Champagnes.
She said 70% of her stock is from Europe and 30% are domestic wines. Like others in the wine space, Kiersky said many of her customers prefer imported wines. "French wines are quite a bit more evolved," she said.
Kiersky is not sure what Trump tariffs will be put into place, and for how long and which ones the president might threaten but never impose or impose and then pull back.
“I’m actually waiting to see what actually comes to fruition,” she said.
She’s not alone with other businesses and suppliers throughout the wine and spirits space trying to figure out the impacts of Trump’s trade wars.
Imported wines and spirits make up 38% of the U.S. marketplace, according to the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America.
The industry group opposes Trump’s 200% tariffs. There are also worries the tariffs will eliminate European wines from the U.S. market, allowing domestic producers to raise prices because of less competition.
Like other wine shops, bars and restaurants and liquor stores, Kiersky is trying to figure out paths forward if the tariffs happen.
Her current inventories include wines from France, Italy, Spain and Austria.
She will be seeing what distributors have in stock before the tariffs start hitting prices and what she can order.
"Buyers like me are going to be looking to distributors and asking 'what do you have already here,'" Kiersky said.
Kiersky expects to see some distributors and retailers order French and other European wines to try to get them in the U.S. before the new duties are levied.
She’s also looking at creating a new European wine club featuring imported bottles that get into the U.S. before the tariffs are potentially enacted.
Washington's Skagit Valley — including Mount Vernon — is known for its tulips.
“I might do something that could get boxes out to people with the European wine we might have on hand,” Kiersky said. “Some hidden gems.”
Canadians upset with Trump’s tariffs and his jabs that their country should become the 51st U.S. state have also been vowing to curtail travel to the U.S. and rescue their purchases of American products. That could impact tourism, including areas just across the border.
Trump’s promised tariffs and trade wars are prompting other businesses to look for innovative and creative hacks. Trump contends the tariffs will help spur domestic industries including winemakers.
But they are also rattling investors, consumers and business confidence.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Optimism Index fell in February, and small business uncertainty levels are their highest since 1974, according to the national group.
And that was before Trump’s latest trade and tariffs volleys toward Canada and the European Union earlier this month. He's already imposed 20% blanket tariffs on Chinese goods.
Boxes of French sparkling wines are for sale at a liquor store in Niles, Ill., Thursday, March 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
“Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street, and for many reasons,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg in a statement March 11, citing small business concerns about inflation and labor conditions.
Consumer confidence has also slipped significantly, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.
UM Economist Joanne Hsu said consumer sentiment is worsening across income, political affiliations and geographic regions.
“Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences,” Hsu said in a statement on the preliminary March sentiment figures.
Stocks are down the past 30 days, as Wall Street and investors also worry about Trump’s trade path and a potential economic slowdown.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down more than 2,200 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are off 7.4% and 11.4%, respectively, the past 30 days as of the end of trading Thursday, according to Google Finance.
President Donald Trump holds up an executive order in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, March 20, 2025.(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
Trump vowed to stick with his tariffs, touting their use by former President William McKinley. He argued the tariffs will help address trade imbalances and inequities.
"April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!! For DECADES we have been ripped off and abused by every nation in the World, both friend and foe. Now it is finally time for the Good Ol’ USA to get some of that MONEY, and RESPECT, BACK. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!," Trump said in a social media post Friday morning.
But then during comments from the Oval Office, Trump also said there could be some "flexibility" with his promised reciprocal tariffs.
“..The word flexibility is an important word," Trump said. "Sometimes it’s flexibility. So there’ll be flexibility, but basically it’s reciprocal.”
He’s also pushed back on worries that tariffs will raise prices, disrupt supply chains (including for automakers, publishers and home builders) and hurt U.S. exports.
Trump and other White House officials contend tariffs skeptics are globalists opposed to their populist agenda.
“The United States of America is going to take back a lot of what was stolen from it by other countries and, frankly, by incompetent U.S. leadership. We're going to take back our wealth and (we'll) take back a lot of the companies that left,” said Trump in another post.
But Kiersky said the 200% tariffs on wine and French Champagne imports from the EU will hit a host of businesses and jobs — ranging from European vineyards and American distributors to wine shops, bars and restaurants. The U.S. is the largest wine market in the world totaling $107 billion, according to a 2024 report from BMO.
"Imported wines create more jobs on this side of the ocean than it does in Europe," she said. "It affects so many people."
