Agsafe Weekly Rural Report
Finance: The NZ dollar was steady over the week as Trump’s tariff war becomes the international unknown. Brent Crude lifted again to $70.61/barrel.
Wool: Wool prices There is increasing interest in wool, but prices are still not enough to sustain the wool industry.
Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: Meat schedules are steady to firmer across the spectrum with the lower dollar and the increased demand for red meats especially the manufacturing beef in the USA. Venison prices are good, lamb & beef schedules are OK.
Dairy Prices. Dairy commodities remain strong with predictions of a $10 payout for the 25/26 season. Fonterra has announced an increase in its likely dividends.
You can hear us live on the radio on Monday morning at 7.35 am with Brian Kelly on Country Sport Breakfast – Radio NZ Gold AM. 792 AM in the Waikato & 1332 AM in Auckland.
Jim’s Weekly Rant:
The government declared much of the North Island and the top of the South Island as drought areas a week ago. I think most farmers and even hobby gardeners knew there was a drought. The government makes additional funding available to the Rural Support Trust and that is about all the declaration does. Long term droughts have seen the government move to provide some tax relief by allowing tax payments to be delayed, but in real terms it is just a declaration. Some simple statistics as recorded in Hamilton are: the 10-15cm soil temperature is crucial and it is still over 19˚C. The soil moisture measurements are recorded as being “Dangerously Dry” and the rainfall since 1st January is only 64.5mm compared with the average year to date rainfall average of 244mm. Evapotranspiration levels are high. There is no rain on the rain radar that could be considered to be a drought breaker. When the drought breaking rains come the dry grass in the pasture will decompose and the fresh shoots will take a minimum of 10-days or longer to provide any reasonable cover. Grass growth rates have dropped away and summer feed crops are now finished. There have been good maize yields and the maize harvest is underway conserving feed for the next dairy season. On the sheep farms the ewes should be being flushed for mating and beef calves are usually weaned over the autumn. Autumn calving dairy cows should be calving and requiring a flush of quality feed to set them up for the season. Spring calving cows are winding down and most have done over 85% of their seasons production leaving only 15% to drag out of the cows over the next 8 to 11 weeks. On sheep and cattle farms it is important to wean the calves and ensure that the ewes have access to as much quality feed as possible and that may require some silage to be fed. Tough decisions must be made and they will include: 1. how much of the winter supplements can be fed to achieve another 15% of production on a dairy farm? 2. If it doesn’t rain for another 10-days then add on another 14-days you can assume it is now 24-days before there will be feed on the farm and how will that impact on the animals and production? 3. What is the body condition score of the stock now and how much feed will be needed to regain the condition after the drought is over? 4. Make sure all cull stock not required for the next season are off the farm as cull prices are very good. 5. And then there is the cost of milking and retaining staff when they could be using up holiday times. The pastures must have good conditions to recover from a drought and provide quality feed for the winter which is not far-a-way. The $10 milksolids payout is a great temptation to continue milking , but the costs might far outweigh the benefits. It is important to do your sums carefully and honestly as there is no one answer that fits everyone and remember that what you do now will determine the production for the 2025/26 dairy season on the dairy farm and the lambing percentage on the sheep farm. There are three things to consider: 1. Stock condition. 2. Pasture quality and recovery. 3. The bank balance or the $’s, and remember very farm and situation is different and the decision you make will be the right one, you are not alone!! AND please don’t blame CO2 for the drought and an interesting fact is that with more CO2 in the atmosphere the plants can tolerate dryer conditions as the stomata do not have to open so much to suck in their fill of CO2. When the stomata open, the moisture in the plant is allowed to escape.
