There is one thing we must understand about counter-insurgency in Kashmir at this moment: every young man who has picked up a gun or is about to is under the watch of security forces. They know his moves, and in most cases, it is just a matter of days before they strike and kill the terrorist. Insurgency is at its lowest ebb for the first time after 2016. Srinagar district, which last year had become hot, is now breathing easy.
In the Indian heartland, we sometimes get agitated about now-scarce terrorist funerals and the display of support to Islamist extremism. But it must be kept in mind that it is always a Kashmiri who provides information that ultimately leads to an encounter and subsequent terrorist kill.

These things are, of course, not fool-proof — otherwise Pulwama would never have happened. But three years after the revocation of Article 370, it must be said that things are in control, insurgency-wise.
But there are a few things that New Delhi must do now to build on the work of last three years. Among terrorist sympathisers, there is a palpable fear of getting arrested; among families that support terrorism, the possibility of having property attached or losing a government job has begun to act as deterrent. The separatist deep state is deep-rooted, though, and the government has not been able to fully crack that so far. Speak to any local police officer and one realises that the hold of the radical Jamaat-e-Islami in general administration has not waned off. There seems to be very little understanding at the highest level of how the Jamaat has been instrumental in the continuation of the terrorist ecosystem in the Valley. Without striking at its root, insurgency is never going to go away.

 

Broader focus: In addition to tackling terror, the administration should focus on governance

Apart from tackling militancy, the administration must now make a conscious effort to work on social issues such as sexual harassment, domestic violence and drug abuse that are quite prevalent in Kashmiri society. It would be a good time to focus on these under the overall arch of improving governance. Along with other good measures like introducing e-governance, this will go a long way in changing things.
It is clear that the government is trying to create new political voices in Kashmir. Some of them are now openly talking about radicalism and taboo issues like destruction of temples in the absence of the Hindu minority. Most of these voices are, what a senior bureaucrat in Kashmir calls, “individual side shows.”  One voice is endorsed by one agency, someone else by the other. Most of these liberal, pro-India voices, as has been the norm in last three decades, have been left to their fate. But they continue to speak at the cost of grave danger to their lives, hoping that someday they will reap political harvest. They must be protected at any cost. If New Delhi could spend millions protecting terrorists and separatists, the new voices that openly carry the Indian flag (without security) in such hostile environment deserve a little respect to their life.

It would also be time to revisit the counter-insurgency (CI) doctrine. While terrorists need to be killed, the game of “numbers” must be de-incentivised now. There is radicalism of extreme order in pockets where militancy is hot. But the fresher terrorist with hardly any training must be given a chance to reform. Sometimes, experienced officers told me, a militant family gets sucked into a vicious cycle where finding no other escape route or outlet, other family members also join the militant fold. The CI operations are now easier than before. At encounter sites, civilians hardly interrupt such operations, which used to be a norm till three years ago. The forces are much more technologically advanced — they are using good tech surveillance and things like drones to trap and kill militants. If they find a young man who has yet not indulged in a kill, there should be some institutional mechanism for his ‘ghar waapsi.’ It is time consuming, but it can be achieved.

The government has not addressed the Kashmiri Pandit issue at all. But that apart, more concerted efforts need to be done to save and preserve Kashmir’s Hindu past. Some work on the renovation of temples has been started. But it is not adequate. A lot of it is already lost — an activist in Beerwah recently showed me a site on the Bairam hills where two old temples have disappeared. The younger generations of Muslims, deliberately kept in dark about this history, must know it now.

The last thing we now need to do is the annihilation of Pakistan as an idea from the Kashmiri mind. It can be achieved only after we remove this from our political discourse. Bring in new voices, attack terrorist ecosystem from all sides. And never mention Pakistan.

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Views expressed above are the author's own.

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